CLSA Feng Shui Stock Market 2014 Review

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The 2014 CLSA Feng Shui report is finally out.  The report has a few sections but two sections are of particular interest to me and other investors alike - the monthly Feng Shui forecast on the stock market (Hang Seng Index) and the Feng Shui influence on each of the sectors in 2014.

The CLSA Feng Shui report makes a bullish forecast for 2014 in general.  The Year of Horse is likely to kick off with a strong showing in February.  In March and April, markets are likely to remain range-bound before enjoying another strong uptrend in May.  According to the report, the month of May is where the bull is likely to be as strong as February, if not stronger.

I am not surprised that the report was bullish on the Hong Kong stock market for the months of February and May.  February is not only the start of new Lunar Year but is also marked by a combination of Flying Stars in the Northeast which embodies wealth creation.  In my earlier post on Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014 - Timing Stock Market Correction in 2014, I mentioned that the most auspicious months for the U.S. stock market in 1H2014 are March and May.  April is average at best while February and June are vulnerable months where US stock market might experience a correction.

The CLSA Feng Shui forecast is slightly different from mine, which is not surprising since the methods on which our forecast are based are different.  Moreover, while my forecast (and focus) is on the US stock market, the CLSA Feng Shui forecast is made on the Hong Kong stock market.

Personally, I am more bullish on global stock markets for the month of March than CLSA Feng Shui forecast suggests.  As regard to February, while the flying star combination residing in Northeast (where Hong Kong is located) symbolises wealth-creation, the flying star combination in Northwest (where U.S. is located) is not auspicious. Therefore, I remain guarded on on the prospects in February.  A correction on the US stock markets will not be good for the Hong Kong stock market - thus my caution for the month of February.  Having said that, I am not downright bearish for the month of February because it is after all the start of a new lunar year - a year which is marked by more auspicious than inauspicious stars.

 May - Strongest month for global markets?

One forecast which we both seem to agree on is for the month of May.  From Feng Shui point of view, it is not difficult to be bullish for the month.  Virtually all the stars in the different sectors form an auspicious combination.  In particular, the Northwest sector will see Star No 4 visiting which forms a Metal combination with Period Star No 9.  The resulting Metal will reduce the negative effect of Annual Earth Star No 5 and further strengthen the inherent Metal element of Northwest sector.   As for the Northeast sector, the month of May will also have wealth Star No 6 visiting.  The only negative aspect is that the monthly Star No 6 will clash with Annual Star No 7.  However, this combination, inauspicious as it is, will only strengthen the Metal element in that sector and when combined with the Earth elements present in the Northeast will produce more wealth.  May is likely to see some heightened political conflict involving the two Korean nations or China and Japan. Despite the negative news flows on the geopolitical front, stock markets are likely to ride a wall of worry on a firm and strong uptrend.

Fed to pause tapering in April's FOMC meeting?

       

May is typically a tricky month for stock markets in general.  The "Sell in May and go away" mantra is not without historical evidence. Nonetheless, for 2014, May is likely to be a good month (best in 1H2014).  What might cause the strong rally in May is anybody's guess.  If I were to make a guess, it is likely to be a pause in the tapering of bond purchases by the Fed in their FOMC meeting on 29-30April.  This should provide a positive uplift to the global stock markets.  Another possibility is an interest rate cut by the China Central Bank or a stimulus measure undertaken by the chinese government in response to the economic slow down.  Typically, January and April tend to be tricky months for the China stock market in the past as investors anticipate a rate hike just days prior to the Lunar New Year or before the long summer holiday in China begins in May.  (Central bankers like to hike rates before a long holiday or weekend to soften the impact of the rate hike on financial markets).  If global economy slows down in tandem or stock markets undergo a nasty correction in April, it is possible that the governments or central banks "get together" to stimulate the global economy again.

Bullish on Plantation, Soft Commodities and Technology

The CLSA Feng Shui team is bullish on sectors such as plantation, soft commodities, techonology, transport and retail and bearish on sectors such as resources and property.  I agreed with most of their bullish views and their bearish view on property.  As for resources, I am more bullish because of the confluence of the auspicious flying stars in the metal mining regions such as South Africa, Mexico and Peru. I understand where their bearishness on the sector comes though - this is a strong Fire year and Fire destroys Metal.  But I will be happy to stick with my view because I also believe that the recovery in the global economy will spur more demand for the industrial metals.

I personally think that plantation and soft commodities will perform well this year but I am not sure about retail or technology. Though I agreed that this year favours sectors which are associated with Wood and Fire, these two sectors have performed rather strongly in the last two years. I would rather choose energy sector particularly, natural gas-related， renewable energy-related and LED sectors. In my opinion, they offer better value and more upside to investors in 2014.


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Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014 - Timing Stock Market Correction in 2014

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In my post on Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014, I have made my forecast on the asset class and stock market which will likely to be the outperformers in 2014 and in my post on Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014 - Part II, I made my forecast on the various industries/sectors which are likely to be outperformers in 2014.  In this post, I focused on the timing of a market correction in the US stock market in 2014.

At the time of writing, almost all investors are wondering when the big correction in the US stock market will arrive.  It has been more than a year since the Dow or S&P 500 has seen a correction of 10% or more.  Here, I shall use the monthly Flying Stars in an attempt to assess the likelihood of the US market having a correction in the first half of this year. 

January looks like a safe month for the market. The monthly Star No 1 forms an auspicious combination with annual Flying Star No 6 in Northwest.  In February, the annual 2014 Flying Star starts to kick in, and Northwest sees annual Flying Star No 5 combining with monthly Flying Star No 9.  As this is an inauspicious combination, there is a good chance of a stock market correction during this month.

March, April and May look like safe months for the US stock market and a major correction in either of these months is unlikely.  The star combinations of 5-8 and 5-6 in March and May respectively signify that the stock market is likely to do really well during these two months.  In April, the Metal Element of Monthly Star No 7 will also reduce the negative Earth influence of Annual Star No 5.  April is not a good month but a major correction during the month is not probable too.

In June, the double 5-5 star combination comes into play.  This combination is rather inauspicious and it is likely that a major correction will take place this month.  In July, the star combination is 5-4 which is also an inauspicious combination.  But monthly Star No 4 combines with Period Star No 9 to form a Metal combination which reduces the negative influence of Annual Star No 5 and enhances the Metal Element of the Northwest sector.  Thus, any correction in June is unlikely to last into July.

To summarize, February and June look like bad months for the US stock market. March and May are probably the best months.  A major correction in US stock market is unlikely to last long as the negative months are followed immediately by auspicious months.

Looking from the lens of a financial investor, the appointment of the dovish Janet Yellen is bullish for the global stock markets. The new Fed Chairwoman will chair the first Fed meeting in March. Should there be a meaningful correction in the US stock market in the February, it is likely that the new Fed Chairwoman would put a pause in the tapering of bond purchases or give a positive forward guidance to pause the tapering in the coming months.  If markets do not correct in February, non-farm payrolls might disappoint again after coming in way below consensus in December. Either way, the period from March-May looks like a good one for the US markets.  

Conclusion: 2014 promises to be another good year for global stock markets in general.  Though the US market is likely to underperform other stock markets, the probability of a major crash is unlikely, especially in the first half of the year!

Update: Compare my monthly stock market forecast with CLSA Feng Shui Stock Market 2014 Review.

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SMRT's Feng Shui Woes

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In recent years, the two major transport companies in Singapore, Comfort Delgro and SMRT, experienced a series of trains and buses' breakdown which provoke the ire of many Singaporean commuters.  They could not understand why despite the constant fare increase which are purportedly meant to improve the train and bus services, the breakdowns keep on happening.

What most Singaporeans don't realize is that of the two companies, SMRT has much more train breakdowns than Comfort Delgro.  Granted, their networks (North-South line and East-West line)  are much older and thus more susceptible to break downs caused by wear and tear.  However, problems also plagued their Circle Line which come into operation only two years ago.

Besides frequent train breakdowns, SMRT also has to contend with a strike by its Chinese workers and a fatal bus accident along Dairy Farm Road, among other highly-publicized woes.  The company came under a lot of pressure from the public and in early 2012, its CEO, Ms Saw Phaik Hwa, resigned from the company.

 

Feng Shui of SMRT's Headquarters' address

 

To understand its problems from Feng Shui perspective, one has to study the Feng Shui of its office headquarters. I have no information on that since I do not work in SMRT or have friends who work there.  However, going by the address of its office headquarters, we can do a simple analysis of the Feng Shui of its office headquarters. In Feng Shui, every number has a Feng Shui effect and can be associated with a Star number (or Gua number).  From my experience, these effects are usually secondary to the Feng Shui of the unit itself.  Nonetheless, the influence is still there and since this is the only information I have with regard to the Feng Shui of SMRT's headquarters, I shall base my entire analysis on these numbers.
 

The address of SMRT's office headquarters is 251 North Bridge Road, S179102.  A simple analysis of this address does not spell good for the Feng Shui of SMRT.  First of all, the unit number 251 is not a particularly auspicious number for a transport company.  Numbers 2 and 5 are the most inauspicious numbers in Flying Star Feng Shui and Number 1 stands for transport. Numbers 2 and 5 are also associated with the Earth Element which destroys the Water Element of Number 1.  Moreover, the direction North is also symbolised by Star No 1.  Therefore, one would interpret that the transport company is being destroyed by notorious numbers 2 and 5 which represent mishap, illness, death, accidents, obstacles, etc.

 

Period and Annual Stars

 

A more thorough application of Flying Star Feng Shui also has to take into account the effects of the Period and Annual stars. And here, we can see that these stars (particularly the Annual stars) are also highly inauspicious. To apply the Period and Annual Star analysis, we need to first convert the numbers in the address into Feng Shui Gua Numbers.

 

In Period 8, Gua number 8 is represented by Number 1, Gua number 9 represented by Number 2, and so on (please see table below).  Zero is irrelevant and thus ignored.

 

Gua No	8	9	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	…	1	…	6	…	6
Number	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	…	102	…	179	….	251

   

We can see from the above table that number 251 belongs to Gua number 6 in the current period. If we break down the postal code 179102 into 179 and 102, the corresponding Gua numbers are 6 and 1.

So the Period Gua numbers derived from the address are 6-6-1. These are auspicious numbers especially fitting for transport companies. No surprise that SMRT, a major transport company will have an address which has these Gua numbers.

 

Inauspicious Annual Stars

 

So if the Gua numbers are auspicious, why does SMRT experience such difficult times from 2011-2013? The answer to this lies in the annual flying stars that reside in the numbers from the address.

 

In 2011, the Annual Ruling Star is No 7 which means that 6-6-1 will be transformed into 5-5-9.  Gua number 5 is a highly inauspicious number and when combined with the Fire Element of Gua Number 9, its negative influence is enhanced.

 

In 2012, the associated numbers are 4-4-8 which, though not highly inauspicious, are not a particularly auspicious combination as well.

 

In 2013, the associated numbers are 3-3-7, a combination which often brings political dispute, strike, demonstration, stress, etc.

 

It is noteworthy that the strikes by SMRT's Chinese drivers took place in Nov 2012 but the news continued to steal the headlines well into mid-2013 when the star numbers 3-3-7 dominated.

 

Fatal bus accident by Bus 700A

 

In July 2013, an accident involving SMRT bus no 700A took place along Dairy Farm road.  A 19-year old male passenger was killed in the accident.  Why did the accident take place and why did it involves bus number 700A?

Let's take the first digit from the bus number 7 and ignore the zeros.  In 2013, the Gua number associated with it is number 2 while the Gua number associated with the letter A is number 5.  For those familiar with Flying Star Feng Shui, this combination of 2-5 is probably the most inauspicious and deadly of all combinations, often symbolises death by accident or illness.  Notice that the accident involves Bus no 700A and not Bus no 700 because the former has a Gua number 5 associated with it, forming the deadly combination of 2-5.   

As I mentioned above, the above Feng Shui analysis only took into account the Feng Shui implications of SMRT's office headquarters' address.  I believe that a thorough review of the Feng Shui of its office premises will shed even more light on the reasons for its recent problems.  If anyone has information on the details of SMRT's office premises (facing direction of main entrance, location of main entrance, age of building, etc), I will like to hear from you.
 

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Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014 - Part II

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In Part I of my Feng Shui and Stock Market Forecast 2014, I made my forecast on the 2014 performance of various asset classes such as US stocks, European stocks, emerging market stocks, US bonds and commodities. In the post, I forecasted that European stocks are likely to be the clear steady winner in terms of performance while US stocks are likely to fare the worst.  I also have bullish outlook on commodities, particularly the metals and agricultural commodities segment.  

Nonetheless, no forecast on the stock market is complete without a discussion on the industries or sectors which will perform well in a given year.  So which sector would I place my bet on in 2014?  Obviously, since I am bullish on the commodities, it follows that investing in commodity-related stocks will be a good start.  Commodities stocks have been massive under-performers over the last few years.  In 2014, this trend is likely to reverse and commodities stocks should take over the leadership from other sectors like consumer staples and technology. 

Wood and Fire Stocks

2014 is the year of Wood Horse.  Since the element associated with Horse is Fire, industries related to Wood and Fire are likely to perform well.  Moreover, the Annual Ruling Star in 2014 is Star No 3 which is also of Wood element and since Wood produces Fire, industries associate with Fire should do extraordinary well. 

Industries associated with Wood Element includes Timber trading, Furniture, Construction, most plantations, etc. Industries associated with Fire Element includes oil & gas, energy, most Food and Beverages, LED and other Display, etc.

My strongest conviction among these industries is the renewable energy stocks (particularly biofuels and solar-related) and LED stocks. Biofuels, solar and LED stocks have underperformed the markets very badly over last few years and this year should see them steal the limelight.  

From a Feng Shui point of view, biofuels (corn or sugar ethanol, rapeseed or palm oil biodiesel) belongs to Wood-Fire Element which gels with 2014 Elements.  Though rising agricultural prices will increase the feedstock costs of these companies, demand for biofuels should be strong and these companies will be more than able to pass on the cost increase to end-consumers. 

How strong is my conviction on biofuels and solar sectors?  Well, I will just say that the Feng Shui factors for these two sectors in 2014 is almost identical to the ones present in 2013 for Tesla Motors. 

Tesla Motors - beneficiary of good Feng Shui in 2013

One only has to look at the share price performance of Tesla Motors to have a feel on how well these two sectors will perform in 2014.  The share price of Tesla Motors went up several fold in the last 12 months. From a Feng Shui perspective, cars are associated with Metal Element while battery-operated cars from Tesla (especially model S) are associated with Water-Fire Element.  2013 happens to be the Year of Water Snake which is associated with Water-Fire Element.  The predominant Element of Snake is Fire but it also has hidden Earth and Metal Elements.  Thus, from Feng Shui perspective, it is not surprising that Tesla Motors did very well in 2013. 

Solar Stocks

The solar industry has been hampered by overcapacity in the last few years.  During the last few years, several solar panel companies have filed for bankruptcy.  Prices of poly-silicon, a raw material used in the production of solar panels, plunged to a multi-year low.  Countries like U.S., China and Europe start to impose stricter tariff on imports of solar components to protect their local companies. I believe that after the shakeout in the last few years, the solar industry is poised for a recovery aided by the positive Feng Shui influence in 2014.  It is interesting to note that most solar-related stocks such as GCL Poly and OCI Co bottomed out in mid-2013 and the share price has picked up quite significantly.  From Feng Shui perspective, the first half of the Water Snake Year is marked by Water Element which is inauspicious for solar stocks.  In the second half, the Fire Element of the Snake took over and it boosted the sentiment towards the solar stocks which are associated with Fire.      

Biofuel

Among the three sectors I am particularly bullish on, the biofuel industry is the one which will enjoy the most favourable Feng Shui in 2014.  Biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) are energy sources that make use of agricultural crops such as sugar, corn, rapeseed, palm oil, etc as feed stock to produce energy.   Sugar and corn are feed stocks used produce ethanol which are often blended with gasoline to fuel gasoline-powered cars. Rapeseed and palm oil are often used to produce biodiesel which are blended with diesel to fuel diesel-engine cars.  Different countries have laid down different mandates on the blending of these biofuels with gasoline or diesel.                

 

U.S. is the largest producer of ethanol.  US ethanol production has grown rapidly in the last several years.  The ethanol market share in the US has grown from over 1% in 2001 to 10% in 2011.  By 2011, most cars can run on blends of up to 10% ethanol.  Some E-85 flexi-cars can run up to 85% ethanol.  Despite the strong volume growth, most ethanol companies have not been performing well as rising cost of feed stock (particularly corn) has eaten into their margins. Most companies rely on subsidies from the US government to remain viable.  However, these subsidies expired in December 2011 which dealt this industry an extra blow.  

In Europe and Asia, the blending of biodiesel into diesel engines has also been gaining steam in the last several years.  Despite the Eurozone crisis in 2011-2012, most European countries have mandated the blending of biodiesel with diesel.  Like in the case of US ethanol companies, most biodiesel companies have been adversely affected by the weak crude oil prices following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the subsequent strong feed stock prices. 

In 2014, the biofuel industry will see an increase in demand due to the recovery of global economy.  While I expect to high feed stock costs to persist, my view is that this will be more than compensated by higher biofuel prices as demand for gasoline, diesel and biofuel increase. In the first half of 2014, this industry will benefit from the Wood Element.  In the second half, the Fire Element will even be more beneficial.  Thus, 2014 should see steady and strong performance of biofuel stocks.   

Light Emitting Diode (LED)

Light Emitting Diode (LED) is used mainly in backlight units of television sets with LCD screens.  It is also an energy-saving alternative to conventional light source. Just like the solar industry, over the last few years, the LED industry has been hampered by overcapacity woes.  Despite its energy-saving characteristics, the switch from conventional light source to commercial LED light has been slower than expected due to the huge price premium the latter commands. Most of the demand has come from governments' buying while demand from the private sector remains lacklustre.

In Feng Shui, the LED industry is associated with the Fire Element.  Both the Wood and Fire Elements of Wood Horse in this year are favourable to its prospects.  Meanwhile, the last few years have seen several leading LED module and packaging companies successfully removing a large part of inventory overhang.  Along with continued increase in demand from official buying, a turnaround in 2014 is in sight.  Overall, I am optimistic on the prospects in LED industry in 2014.  

Conclusion

In summary, sectors which are wood-fire or fire only-related will do well in 2014. Commodities-related, Food & Beverages, Oil & Gas, etc are some industries which will enjoy good Feng Shui.  In particular, I am bullish on solar, biofuel and LED sectors.

Update: For timing stock market correction in 2014, please refer to Feng Shui and Stock Market 2014 - Timing Stock Market Correction in 2014.

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2014 风水和股市预测

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我来自财务（资金管理）背景，并对风水学有浓厚的兴趣，所以我经常从风水的角度来分析金融界的事件。我总是感到很有趣，每年里昂证券举办的风水股市预测的演讲都深受投资者的关注。至我所知，里昂证券风水分析队是经过咨询某些香港风水专业人士有关该年风水的学问，然后将取到的风水学问配合他们的金融知识，而所作出预测。他们本身都是没有风水知识的。 当然做出来的预测不是每年都准确的，然而这似乎并没有使投资者对这门预测方法失去信心。处在竞争激烈的环境里，只要有任何事项能够提高投资者战胜的机率，他们都不会错过。 当然我相信有多投资者只是把这套预测作为一种参考资料。   

年干支五行断事

在经济及金融方面，大至上的风水大师都是用该年的干支的五行来推测该年的运势。举例来说，2013年是一个水蛇年而蛇的五行属火，所以有水克火的象征。许多风水师就会推测金属的工业在2013年里会面对不良的运势。那是因为在风水五行生克原理，金是被火克的。 凡是是金属的行业（钢铁，矿山等）在2013年的前景都是不良的。直至今日，这个简单的分析还是相当准确的！

那么2012年呢？那是个水龙年（包含了水和土的五行）。由于土克水的原理，属水的行业（如运输或航空业）在2012年里极可能有不良好的表现。另外，火也会被水克， 所以行业属火（如能源和食品饮料行业）的运势也不会好。这个推断还算不错，因为在2012年里，属海运（水），航空（水）和能源（火）的股票的表现都是不佳的 ，只有属餐饮行业的股票享有强劲上涨。

上面所描述的风水预测法虽然有一定的准确性，然而它所推出的预测是有限的。从我的经验，单运用玄空飞星风水（飞星风水）或将它配合干支五行方法来推断经济或金融的事件会来得更准确。

玄空飞星风水简介

简单地讲解这门风水：飞星风水把元运分开为三元九运，而每运占二十年，每六十年为一元，上元分有一，二，三运；中元分四，五，六运，下元分七，八，九运；三元九运共有一百八十年。上，中，下元运一百八十运年是永远不断的循环的。每一运还对应一颗星，九运就有九颗星。这九颗星都有不同的吉凶象征意义，也有不同的五行属性。每一门风水(包括飞星风水) 都会用到五行相生相克的原理。

 

飞星风水在金融及股市预测的应用

运用飞星风水来推断金融或经济的事件并不是什么新的发现。每位飞星初学者都知道目前的期间 （2004-2023）是属于八运的。 在八运里，飞星八号（称八白）是最旺的，五行属土，象征东北，儿童，山，手指，等。中国，蒙古，俄罗斯（东部），日本和韩国都是位于东北部的国家。在过去的十年里，中国和蒙古的经济增长得非常迅速，俄罗斯也逐渐开放起来，韩风更是热潮了起来。很多国家的房地产业也蒸蒸日上。即使是经济停滞接近二十年的日本，益于Abenomics也开始有经济恢复的迹象。中国和日本在政治上的相斗，北南韩的纠纷，和美国学童的无数杀戮，还有中国的独生子女政策也受到了全球媒体的关注。在飞星风水学上，这些种种事件都可以基于八白运星的影响。

深入了八运，七运的飞星（称七赤）的力量会渐渐减低，七赤运星所象征的事物也随着失去焦点。七赤星代表电信，恐怖主义，抢劫，等事物。恐怖主义见顶于2001年，过了2001年9月美国双塔袭击的事件后就没有什么大的恐怖袭击。包容许多电信级网络业属的股票的纳斯达克指数 （Nasdaq）在2000年高达5000点，过后就没有回升到这高峰。

 

运用飞星风水年星推断金融及股市事件

飞星风水除了运星还有年星。年星也是有九颗。从我的经验，利用运星和年星的组合所代表的事物来在经济或金融上作推断会提高预测的准确性。其实，过去几年发生的世界重大事件都可以从该年的运星和飞星来理解或预测。读者可参考我有关的写作：风水与2011年日本地震和海啸 (Feng Shui and Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 2011)，风水与2011年阿拉伯之春 (Feng Shui and Arab Spring 2011) 和风水与2010-2012年欧洲债务危机 (Feng Shui and European Debt Crisis 2010-2012)。从我的经验，用这套方法来推断经济，政治，甚至商品价格上的走势是相当准确的。至于股市的表现或水平， 其他的金融因素（例如：股市的估值，中央银行的货币政策，等）会比较重要。股市的最终表现是要看多方面的因素，尤其是美国联储局量化宽松的政策，对所有资产的价格是有庞大的影响力的。相比这些金融因素， 风水对股市的影响是属于次等的。虽言如此，我也有十多年的投资经验了，所以也算有这门的专长知识。我把这套知识配合了风水的学问作出以下的2014金融预测。

 

房地产业面临强大挑战

首先，很多国家的房地产业在2014年可能会面临强大挑战。为什么呢？这是因为2014年的年星是四号星（称四绿）。此星五行属木，而木又克土。属土的房地产业现在被四绿星的木克，所以前景不会乐观。在股市里，发展商股和房地产投资信托基金可能受到的负面影响。我相信投资者担心美国联储局会不持续消减量化政策，导致美国债券收益率继续上升。面对债卷收益率上升的环境，这两类股是比较难有优良的表现的。很多国家的房地产价格的膨胀在过去几年里已经超于买者收入的增长，所以即使没有风水上的逆风因素，也很可能已经达到高峰水平了。这里需要说明，2015年的年星五行也属木，所以房地产业在2015年也可能会面对极大的挑战。

 

新兴市场优胜美股

其次，新兴市场的股票（尤其是亚洲股票）优胜美股的机率会比今年（2013年）高。美股今年表现虽然尤佳，不过明年飞临美国的年星是五号星(称五黄). 五黄星在这门风水是第一凶星，象征了灾难，疾病，意外，等。面对着这颗大凶星，美国经济和股市极可能面对负面的影响。在过去几年里，美国的页岩气产的发展降低了能源的成本，使到制造业在美国有复兴的迹象。 我认为这个趋势在明年会面对一些故障。这些年来，有些环保专家都认为页岩气（或油）的生产是对环境有害的。如果明年页岩气产业明年出了意外，种种的环保顾虑会给这工业带来无数的麻烦，导致生产量缩退。美国的中石化公业可能将会处在于原料成本上涨的困境。虽然如此，美股市是否会下降还未清，因为五黄虽为凶星，不过它五行属土而因土生金的原理，也有增财的意味。（注：在飞星风水，美国位于西北，五行属金 ）

 

亚洲股市表现反复易变

至于亚洲股市，东北亚股市（大中国区，韩国和日本）极可能在2014年里有强势的上涨.  东北方在2014年见七赤星和二号运星（称二黑）交会。这星组也是土生金的组合，所以也有增财的意味。不过，这两颗星毕竟是凶星，所以虽有进财的意味，也有劫财和其他的负面。二黑和七赤星的组合除了是土生金的组合，也有化凶火的象征。然而东北方的原卦星为五行属土的八白吉星，这凶火也会因火生土的原理，增强这颗吉星， 所以不吉的象征也可能化为无害。

受到这星组的影响，东北方国家明年的运势会有大起大落的可能，先出现吉兆，后出凶兆， 然而凶兆过后，运势也会转平。因为七赤星为劫财和官非星, 所以明年中国和日本及北南韩两国的政治关系会面对更大的挑战。中国内部的政治也可能会出现瑕疵。这些政治问题极可能影响投资者对股市的信心，使到股市先大起后大跌 （恒生指数至少有起落一千点的幅度）。

 

欧洲股市表现稳定

欧洲市场在2014年里可能会表现得尤佳。这是因为年星9号（称九紫）来到了北方，和4号的运星（称四绿）交会。四绿和九紫的星组是相当吉利的, 可断定明年北欧的经济和股市表现应该不错。然而，这吉祥星组并不代表财，所以虽有吉兆，也没有强劲的增财迹象。不过，因为这星组有喜爱及“暂合”的象征，所以断定欧洲危机不会在明年再次发生。（注：南欧国家明年面对的星组是不吉利的，不过，这应该不会对北欧国家影响得太大）。比较美国，欧洲及亚洲股市，我只能有信心地断定在2014年里表现最差的股市应该是美国的股市。

 

产品市场表现优良

第三，商品价格的走向会比今年好。随着全球经济的复苏，能源价格（原油和天然气）会有上涨的趋势。特别是天然气价格似乎已在2012年见底，并有可能在2014年有强劲的增长。虽言如此，商品当中表现最佳的应该是金属（贱金属和贵金属）。 在过去的几年里，这类的商品市场不佳，尤其是黄金和白银，在今年（2013年） 使许多投资者亏损了不少而对这类资产失去了信心。为何金属在2014年的表现会尤佳呢？

 

黄金价格2013年见底；白银2014年表现特出

首先，北，西及东北方在2014年的星组都对这类资产有利，南方的星组也见吉利的星组。许多位于南，西和东北方的国家（特别是中国）都是是金属的主要生产国。 吉星到了那些方位会对那些国家的采矿业有助。特别是白银，除了会益于全球经济的复苏，也会得到吉星组合的支助，尤其是在东北方二黑和七赤的星组，还有西方一白和六白的星组。位于东北方的中国，及位于西方的墨西哥和秘鲁都是白银（和铜）重要的出产国。除此之外，钯金和铂金的表现应该也不错因为位于南方的南非是铂金的主要生产地，而且南方在2014年里见三碧和八白的吉星组合。

 

铜可能会益于智利的灾难

铜和银的价格是息息相关的。由于中国也是铜的第二大生产国家，铜也会得到二黑和七赤星组的支助。讲到铜，也该讲到智利。位于西南方的智利是铜的最大生产国。在八运里，西南方和东北方是容易受到地震的。（请参阅风水与2011日本的地震和海啸 Feng Shui and Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 2011）。在2014里，西南方见到年星一白星和运星五黄的星组。这个星组有地震，海啸或水灾的象征，所以智利，阿根廷和其他西南方的国家在2014年里可能会面对这些灾难。除此之外，2015年西南方的星组也有火灾（如旱寨，火山爆发）和地震的象征。还有2016年的星组主要也包含了地震的象征。相比之下，2015年和2016年发生自然灾难的机率会比2014年来得高。 总之，在未来三年中，西南方发生重大的地震，水灾，火灾或海啸的机率是非常高的。这些灾难对铜的生产会产生严重的障碍。对投资者来说，这是不可忽视的。

 

农务商品2014年好前景

农务商品（尤其是咖啡，谷物和糖）在2014年也有良好的前景。哥伦比亚，委内瑞拉和巴西（北部）都位于西方，所以会得到一白和六百吉星组合的益处。此外，在西南方的阿根廷，智利和巴西（南部）也会受到一白和五黄的不吉星组。所以，在2014年西南方可能会大水灾。如真有水灾，农物产量可能会受到不利影响。阿根廷和巴西是谷物（特别是大豆）的主要生产国，所以我认为世界谷物的价格会有极大的上涨。豆油价格的表现应该会超越其他食用油（例如：棕榈油）价格的表现。

其他农务商品当中，可可，咖啡，棉花和糖会是2014年表现较好的商品。欧洲经济持续复苏，会增强可可的需求。棉花将受益于中国的经济回升，同时也得到四绿星的支助。（注：棉花和四绿星五行相同属木）。咖啡和糖价格明年应该有强劲回升的可能。       

 

美国债卷表现差；新兴国家货币反弹

谈到金融也不免提起债卷和货币。这两类的投资都属于阳性的。明年的管星，四绿是阴性的，所以阳性的资产投资表现不会很好。 因此，美国债券，美元和其他发达市场的债卷和货币在2014年不会是好的投资。 我认为新兴国家的货币在2014年里将会有大的反弹。

                              

7      3 4	南 3      8 9	5     1 2
6      2 3	8      4 5	1     6 7
2     7 8	4     9  1	9     5 6

左- 运星; 中- 原星 右 - 年星

总结

总结一下我的2014年金融预测：

(1(1）房地产市场的表现在很多国家会不如往年。房地产投资信托基金在股市表现不佳。

  （2）  股市方面，美国股市的表现会落于欧洲和亚洲股市。东北亚洲的股市表现会出现大起大落的 现象。

( (3)  在商品方面，金属和农务商品会脱颖而出。尤以白银和铜的表现最好。黄金触底反弹，不过 表现会落于白银或铜。铂和钯的表现虽不如白银或铜，不过也有优良的表现。在农务商品方面，表现最强劲应该会是谷物，咖啡，棉花和糖。

(4(4) 发达市场债券及货币不太可能在2014年表现良好。

 

读者想要有更深的风水理解可参看有关的网页：风水与日本的地球和海啸2011（Feng Shui and Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 2011）与 风水和新加坡 (Feng Shui and Singapore)。    

祝大家有个好的2014年，在新的一年，财源滚滚来！

PS: 请参看 2015 中国股市预测 Feng Shui and China Stock Market 2015

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